Optical communication industry like the information highway and super porter, the whole industry is relatively simple, the main equipment is three big: optical fiber, optical module, optical equipment.
The fiber is like the data packaging center, which is responsible for the conversion and processing of optical signals and electrical signals. The optical equipment is a large data warehousing and transit base.
From the point of view of the industrial chain, the expansion of light rod capacity is more cautious.The reason is that the investment payback period of light rod is relatively long, estimated at about 8 years.After the industry pains from 2012 to 2014, relevant manufacturers have deeply realized the power of the cycle. In the current situation that we cannot see the continuous prosperity in the next five years or more, we are relatively cautious in capacity expansion.From the perspective of industrial chain research, due to the preferred leading manufacturer of operator procurement, the industry concentration is improving, and only some leading manufacturers have plans to expand the production capacity of light rod.It is estimated that by the end of 2017, the domestic production capacity of optical rod can reach 7,400 tons, which can meet the production demand of 230 million core kilometers of optical fiber, and the import dependence is reduced.
While expanding the optical fiber, optical devices including optical chips, access devices, etc.At present, the usage rate of optical fiber in radio and television network is very low. If radio and television do not want to be directly eliminated by Internet television, it is inevitable for them to enter the Internet field to expand optical fiber business. Previously, the demand of radio and television industry for optical fiber is mainly two-way transformation, namely fiber + coaxial cable hybrid network.Because the traditional cable television network is one-way transmission, is the downlink broadcast transmission.In order to solve interactive digital television, broadband Internet access and other functions, radio and television must network from a one-way network to a two-way network, in the network to add back to achieve two-way transmission.In May 2016, the ministry of industry and information technology issued the basic telecom business license to China radio and television, which means that China radio and television has become the fourth operator to carry out basic telecom services in China after China telecom, China mobile and China unicom.Since then, China radio and television has obtained a license to enter the broadband access market and the qualification to build its own physical network.Once it enters this field, the future demand for optical fiber and optical devices will reach a higher level.
So bullish on the whole industry development factors, on average, based on the following aspects: the demand on mobile fixed network development to ensure the future of the boom of 2-3 years in the industry, at the same time, IDC center optical network reconstruction demand and the demand of upgrade and will become a key industry of radio, film and television, at the same time as for broadband quality enhances unceasingly, many access operators are also a lot of old access lines commonly known as "the last kilometer" is transformed into light path for industry demand are helpful.
From the perspective of supply, domestic manufacturers clearly camp, light module light chip technology threshold high only a few companies, and optical fiber optical rod production scale requirements, high concentration of the industry is also basically divided by a few big companies.The continuous use of fiber optic welding machine manufacturers rise, there is the potential to catch up, the Yangtze river after the wave before the wave, not into the retreat, the enterprise to better survive, must have the vitality of continuous innovation.
In addition, the next 2 years for Europe and the United States of the relevant equipment anti-dumping also gave domestic manufacturers a good opportunity for development.At the same time, the national demand for high-end optical chips and optical modules may also increase the intensity of mergers and acquisitions and industrial upgrading progress of some related enterprises.
Though the future economic situation is not optimistic, but the communication industry "big infrastructure" does not stop, the above all sorts of views and data is only based on the current technology and the industrial structure to make judgments, for sure, once in the next 5 g commercial mature, there are even more subversive of communication technology, optical communication industry's future will continue to face new opportunities and worth our communication people attention and grasp, opportunities are lost in the hesitation.