In the optical communication industry, the upstream of the optical communication equipment industry chain is the optical device and chip enterprises, the middle is the communication equipment manufacturers such as huawei and zte, and the downstream is the three major operators.In the industry chain of optical fiber and cable, the upstream is the manufacturer of prefabricated fiber optic rod, the middle is the manufacturer of optical fiber and cable, and the downstream is the three major operators.In the industry chain of optical fiber and cable, enterprises with the production capacity of fiber precast rod have a high level of profitability.
Recently, the ministry of commerce announced the preliminary finding of anti-dumping investigation on imported fiber prefabricated rod from Japan and the United States.Chinese manufacturers have been expanding capacity at a breakneck pace and have been aggressive in making fiber optic prefabricated rods.
In 2016, the total global demand for optical fiber and cable will reach 425 million km, of which China accounts for 57%. It is expected that the price of optical fiber and cable will rise. China mobile's centralized procurement scale will continue to expand.
Driving factors for the development of optical communication industry:
1. Cloud technology, big data, 4K, live broadcast and other applications cause the explosion of Internet traffic and the increasing demand for transmission network capacity.
2. The "broadband China" strategy continues to advance, with extensive coverage of 4G and fiber to the home.
3. "One Belt And One Road" accelerates the digital silk road to the sea.
4, light into the copper back, replacement needs of aging cable.
In the short term, the start of 16 years of intensive tender will drive the domestic optical communication industry to maintain a high prosperity in 1-2 years.In the long run, the increasing demand for transmission network capacity expansion due to the outbreak of Internet traffic, the continuous promotion of "broadband China" strategy and other policies, the acceleration of "One Belt And One Road" digital silk road going to sea, and the replacement demand of aging optical fiber cables are the driving factors for the development of optical communication industry.Today we see 5G, the Internet of things and a host of new technologies emerging -- which means the need for high density is not just in the home network.
Traffic explosion drives the growth of optical communication information infrastructure demand.In the Internet era, cloud computing and big data technology keep developing, 4K video, virtual reality (VR), video live broadcast and other applications generate a large amount of traffic demand, the scale of enterprise network and data center continues to expand, the Internet application field continues to expand and upgrade, and the multi-factor driven Internet data volume presents explosive growth.
According to IDC, the total amount of data in the world will reach 40 million exabytes in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 36%.The growth rate of China's Internet data traffic is more prominent. In 2020, China's Internet data traffic will reach 8806 exabytes, accounting for 22% of the global data output, with an annual compound growth rate of 49%.
Internet data traffic is growing rapidly
"Broadband China" strategy continues to advance, policy-driven operators to increase investment in network construction.The circular of the state council on the issuance of the "broadband China" strategy and implementation plan pointed out that by 2020, the broadband network will cover all urban and rural areas, the household penetration rate of fixed broadband will reach 70%, the 3G/LTE user penetration rate will reach 85%, and the proportion of broadband access to administrative villages will exceed 98%.Urban and rural households have broadband access to 50Mbps and 12Mbps respectively, and some households in developed cities can get up to 1 gigabit per second (Gbps).
In 2015, the state council proposed in the guideline on accelerating the construction of high-speed broadband network, promoting the acceleration and reduction of network fees, to accelerate the construction of all-fiber network cities and the fourth-generation mobile communication (4G) network. In 2016-2017, the accumulative investment is no less than 700 billion yuan, and the trillion-level investment drives the continuous prosperity of optical communication industry.
"One Belt And One Road" strategy advance, digital silk road to speed up the sea.In 2015, the national development and reform commission, the ministry of foreign affairs and the ministry of commerce jointly issued the vision and action for jointly building the silk road economic belt and the 21st century maritime silk road.Taking this opportunity, China will also accelerate the pace of "going global". Communication, as the cornerstone of information interconnection, will also benefit greatly from the implementation of "One Belt And One Road" policy. The huge cake brought by the construction of "One Belt And One Road" communication facilities is also a new opportunity for manufacturers in the communication industry.
"Eight horizontal and eight vertical" backbone network will face the upgrade and expansion demand in the future.The large-scale construction of China's optical fiber network began in the 1980s. After years of efforts, the "eight horizontal and eight vertical" backbone network has been formed.Fiber life is generally 20 years, the existing backbone network is facing the main problem of fiber aging, performance decline, can not meet the requirements of modern high-speed communication and bandwidth requirements.By 2015, nearly 40% of the backbone cables have achieved a design life of 20 years, and the backbone network will face continuous upgrading and expansion demand in the future.In addition, the upgrade and expansion of backbone network also gave rise to the need for the evolution of light modules from 100G to 400G.
Schematic diagram of national "eight horizontal and eight vertical" optical cable communication trunk network
Transmission network construction continues, access network space is huge.If the transmission network is compared to the arteries and veins of the network, then the access network is its capillaries. The continuous promotion of the investment in the transmission network will also generate a large number of access network and access terminal equipment needs.
(access network refers to all equipment between the backbone network and the user terminal, and its length is generally several hundred meters to several kilometers, so it is vividly called "the last kilometer".Because the backbone network generally adopts fiber structure, the transmission speed is fast, so the access network becomes the bottleneck of the whole network system.The access modes of access network include copper wire (normal telephone line) access, optical fiber access (FTTx), optical fiber coaxial cable (cable TV cable) mixed access and wireless access.
Fiber to the home to improve the space, leading to strong growth in demand for access equipment.Currently, the number of FTTH households in China is about 190 million, accounting for about 58% of the total number of broadband users.According to the "broadband China" strategic planning, the number of broadband users in China will reach 400 million in 2020, and it is estimated that the number of FTTH users will exceed 300 million, which means a huge room for improvement.
FTTH deployment in China not only drives the demand growth of outdoor/indoor introduced cables and equipment, but also generates a large number of replacement demand of optical access terminals for original copper access terminals. In the next 2-3 years, access network market will maintain a high growth trend, and the demand for access terminal products will keep increasing.
Active fiber to the home deployment has stimulated the cable demand in many countries and regions;The shortage of supply has limited the rapid growth of demand to some extent.In the future, the developing communications market will attract more investment in fiber optic cables.Undersea cable demand will continue its strong upward trend.